Four potential scenarios for the Cat. 4 Gustav
Hurricane Gustav has become a large storm today, reaching category 4 status with 145 mph winds. As the following satellite image shows, Gustav has developed a distinct eye and will soon begin crossing Cuba.
 U.S. Navy |
At this point I envision at least four possible scenarios, in order of most likely to least likely:
1. Central Louisiana landfall, moves inland: This scenario basically follows the GFDL model and the official track forecast. A major hurricane slams into the Louisiana coast just east of New Iberia. The storm slows as it moves inland and perhaps stalls over northeast Texas. There's lots of rainfall in Louisiana and east Texas, including Houston. The storm hits Lake Charles and Baton Rouge hard but other major population centers are largely spared damaging winds.
| HURRICANE GUSTAV Tracking Map, Forecast Historical Map Computer Models Wind Map Satellite Photo Detailed Discussion More on chron.com |
2. Central Louisiana landfall, stalls: In such a scenario, similar to the HWRF model, Gustav makes landfall in central Louisiana as a major hurricane and moves inland for a short period of time. In one to three days, however, it moves back offshore and may re-strengthen before ultimately striking Texas. In such a scenario Texas is probably spared catastrophic winds but there is a potential for significant flooding.
3. Eastern Louisiana landfall: Perhaps after taking a northward jog off Cuba, Gustav makes landfall east of Morgan City as a major hurricane. As I have described below such a scenario is potentially catastrophic for the city of New Orleans, which would face a massive storm surge.
4. Upper Texas coast landfall: Before Gustav reaches the central Louisiana coast the storm bumps into a high pressure system, which bends it westward toward Texas. Depending how close Gustav comes to shore, this scenario could bring a major hurricane to Texas.
No comments:
Post a Comment