Ike, an intense hurricane, bound for Gulf. Updated.
1 p.m. UPDATE: This afternoon's model runs have started to come out and the hominally favored solution is a strike on the upper Texas coast. Be advised that computer models have five-day errors that regularly exceed 400 miles, so it's not time to panic. But within the next five to six days Texas could be facing a serious hurricane.
Summarizing the major models:
The UKMET, European and GFS models all bring a major hurricane to the upper Texas coast about six days from now.
The GFDL model appears to be closer to the Texas-Louisiana border.
The HWRF model prefers a solution that brings a relatively weaker storm toward the southwestern Louisiana coast. The NOGAPS model has a similar track.
There are no clear trends, here. The models have continued to focus on an area between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana-Mississippi border.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: Hurricane Ike remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane this morning as it approaches Cuba and will likely reach the island within a day or so.
The big question, for our purposes, is where Ike's likely to go once in the Gulf. The official forecast has a large cone of uncertainty, and as we're still probably at least five days from landfall it's a difficult question to answer.
The possibilities range from northern Mexico to the Florida panhandle. From Corpus Christi to the Louisiana-Mississippi border remain the likeliest landfall locations.
Here's a plot of the most recent model runs (as of 7:30 a.m. CT):
 Weather Underground |
It should be noted that some of the models now forecast less time over Cuba, which means the storm could weaken less than anticipated over the island, bringing a more powerful hurricane into the Gulf.
Because the island is so narrow it's difficult to forecast the amount of interaction with Cuba even one to three days in advance. What we can begin to talk about are conditions in the Gulf of Mexico when Ike reaches it in a couple of days.
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