There's been lots of drama this afternoon because the GFDL model has made a significant northward shift, bringing a category 4 hurricane to Galveston Island. Let's talk about what this means for Houston and Texas.
MODEL GUIDANCE
It's worth noting that the bulk of the computer models remain centered upon Matagorda Bay, rather than bringing Ike this far north.
 Weather Underground |
I should state that the GFDL is one of the hurricane center's most important models, and the forecasters will often defer to it. However, for the purposes of Ike, other models such as the UKMET and ECMWF have performed better to date.
Instead of moving north during this afternoon's run, the UKMET model actually moved south, to Matagorda Bay. And the ECMWF model remained centered upon Matagorda Bay.
As a result, the hurricane center nudged its official forecast only slightly northward, toward Palacios. Thus Houston still only faces a 20 percent chance of hurricane-force winds. A Matagorda Bay landfall would largely spare the Houston area Ike's worst effects if the system does not strengthen into a large category 4 hurricane.
The next two set of model runs will be critical as it's entirely possible the GFDL model will flop back south, or some of the other models will jump northward to its present location. So it's not time for panic, yet.
I spoke with a Harris County official a little while ago who said there are no immediate plans to call for an evacuation yet, voluntary or mandatory. They're not going overboard because of a single model, and neither should you.
With that being said it's time to begin making rational preparations. For more information, see our Hurricane Preparation Guide.
ANOTHER RITA?
With that being said, this sure feels like another Hurricane Rita to a lot of people who live on the upper Texas coast. And I can understand why -- a major Gulf hurricane heading west under the influence of a high pressure system, and expected to turn shortly before or after reaching the Texas coast.
Perhaps still more eerily, here's the three-day forecast for Rita, which showed a landfall in -- you guessed it -- Palacios.
 National Hurricane Center Rita forecast three days before actual landfall. |
So it is indeed entirely possible the model guidance will continue shifting northward, and Ike's final landfall could come over Galveston or even the Beaumont-Port Arthur area.
| HURRICANE IKE Interactive tracking map Five-day forecast Historical map Computer models Wind map Satellite photo Detailed discussion More on chron.com |
And yes, a major hurricane landfall anywhere between Freeport and Bolivar Peninsula would be potentially catastrophic for Houston, flooding as many as half a million homes temporarily with a storm surge, and bringing devastating winds a bit further inland.
Brakewater's words: During livechat today SciGuy actually said a one in three chance of direct hit to Houston. Also a conversation I had with a friend today who does this for a living (forecasts weather for oil traders) was the most concerned I ever heard him. He said if Houston gets a direct hit it could be devastating because no one is concerned. I filled my tank at 5PM today and no one is there, just normal customers.
It is like the opposite of Rita: The City doesn't want panic so they are understating what could be another 1900 storm. I don't know which is better or worse but I suspect when people wake up tomorrow and the models continue to shift right or north, you will start seeing exodus from Houston.
Ironically the GFDL is the most trusted of the NHC and goes over Houston, but SciGuy's explanation of sticking with the models who have been right so far is interesting.
As always it really only matters what we see tomorrow not today. I continue to stand forth that the city of Houston will be closed Friday for a serious hit or serious near miss of a Cat 3 or 4 Hurricane.
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