Ike now likely to come ashore as a category 2 hurricane
As is evident in the water vapor image below, Hurricane Ike remains an exceptionally large hurricane tonight. It is perhaps this size that has prevented Ike from strengthening during the last couple of days, and it remains a 100-mph hurricane.
Its central pressure has risen to 954 millibars this evening, a sign that rapid intensification likely is not imminent.
 U.S. Navy |
The essential question, of course, is where Ike will make its final landfall in just slightly more than one day from now. We can't know for sure, because even one day before landfall the average forecast error is about 70 miles.
| HURRICANE IKE Interactive tracking map Five-day forecast Historical map Computer models Wind map Satellite photo Detailed discussion More on chron.com |
The official forecast has shifted very moderately eastward, now bringing Ike into land across the east end of Galveston Island. However the inland track is adjusted slightly to the west, bringing the storm's center near downtown Houston.
At this location even a few miles matter. If Ike were to track another 20 or 30 miles eastward up the coast, it's probable that much of Houston would be spared hurricane-force winds, and Galveston Island would see a significantly smaller surge than the 12 to 15 feet presently forecast.
If Ike doesn't move up the coast Galveston faces a potentially catastrophic storm surge, which the local National Weather Service office has described in the strongest possible terms.
Under the present forecast Houston has a 31 percent chance of seeing hurricane force winds, and Galveston has a 51 percent chance. The chance of such winds has risen in Port Arthur to 38 percent.
If you're thinking that this just might be another Hurricane Rita, it's possible. However it's important to note that none of the computer models are presently forecasting a landfall that far to the east.
One big difference between the two storms is that Rita was the fourth-most intense hurricane ever to form in the Atlantic basin, and it's now all but certain Ike won't become nearly that strong.
In fact, the hurricane center has lowered the chance of seeing a major hurricane at landfall to just 30 percent, a big change downward from earlier forecasts.
This doesn't mean Ike won't produce a large, catastrophic storm surge for communities to the east of its landfall location. But it should reduce the the amount of inland damage due to high winds
Much more to come tomorrow."
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